Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-17 0.017157 0.019426 0.021886 0.024752 0.027999 0.031565 0.035780
2025-08-24 0.013584 0.016709 0.020388 0.025040 0.030773 0.037615 0.046413
2025-08-31 0.011408 0.014849 0.019133 0.024865 0.032348 0.041804 0.054689
2025-09-07 0.010170 0.013864 0.018681 0.025433 0.034673 0.046911 0.064406
2025-09-14 0.008747 0.012409 0.017377 0.024624 0.034956 0.049206 0.070440
2025-09-21 0.007768 0.011419 0.016552 0.024312 0.035789 0.052205 0.077593
2025-09-28 0.006840 0.010386 0.015533 0.023573 0.035866 0.054043 0.083127
2025-10-05 0.006496 0.010167 0.015660 0.024505 0.038461 0.059750 0.094921
2025-10-12 0.006112 0.009840 0.015578 0.025084 0.040529 0.064787 0.106082
2025-10-19 0.005788 0.009569 0.015545 0.025718 0.042709 0.070142 0.118183
2025-10-26 0.005340 0.009053 0.015069 0.025572 0.043578 0.073414 0.127080
2025-11-02 0.004974 0.008635 0.014712 0.025581 0.044683 0.077132 0.137011
2025-11-09 0.004549 0.008088 0.014103 0.025124 0.044981 0.079559 0.145023
2025-11-16 0.004291 0.007810 0.013932 0.025420 0.046630 0.084480 0.157972
2025-11-23 0.003986 0.007418 0.013523 0.025242 0.047391 0.087852 0.168332
2025-11-30 0.003819 0.007265 0.013528 0.025818 0.049584 0.094001 0.184463
2025-12-07 0.003478 0.006751 0.012825 0.024997 0.049044 0.094968 0.190608
2025-12-14 0.003234 0.006405 0.012407 0.024681 0.049444 0.097740 0.200535
2025-12-21 0.002961 0.005977 0.011796 0.023930 0.048911 0.098625 0.206682
2025-12-28 0.002905 0.005978 0.012022 0.024877 0.051885 0.106743 0.228532
2026-01-04 0.002812 0.005895 0.012073 0.025465 0.054161 0.113610 0.248325
2026-01-11 0.002730 0.005827 0.012148 0.026109 0.056603 0.121008 0.269913
2026-01-18 0.002576 0.005595 0.011865 0.025960 0.057323 0.124800 0.283843